Summaries of Analyses in 2008 of Biofuels Policies by International and European Technical Agencies
Tim Searchinger
November 18, 2008
Since January 2008, international institutions, national technical agencies, and major international scientific organizations have released ten major reviews of biofuel policies. This brief summarizes their conclusions.

Committed to Change, or Changing Commitments?
Soli Ozel
11/17/2008
Geopolitical realities seem to have once more elevated Turkey’s importance in American foreign policy decisions. In the past, Turkey’s strategic importance and America’s reliance on it had an inverse relationship to the deepening of Turkish democracy. Today, the stability of Turkey necessitates that the country maintain its democratic orientation and that all its political actors commit themselves to this goal. One of the major tests of the Obama administration in its relations with Turkey may very well be whether it will treat Turkish democracy as a fundamental good or an expendable one.

Turkey and the United States under Barack Obama: Yes They Can
Amberin Zaman
November 13, 2008
As the world celebrates the recent election of Barack Obama, politicians in Ankara ponder what this will mean for their country. Obama’s foreign policy vision suggests that Turkish fears are overblown, and that there exists a window of opportunity for reinforcing a strategic partnership with the United States in ways that can positively impact the region, if leaders on both sides show some imagination and avoid pitfalls that line the way.

Climate Change and Geopolitics
Michael Werz
October 2008
One of the consequences of climate change is the dearth or excess of water. Both do not only present imminent danger to many human beings but also present a major threat to the global military balance. Global warming, for example, is of concern to the U.S. Navy at all coasts.

The Shape of the Future: The Transatlantic Economy by 2025
Joseph Quinlan
October 2008
The foundation of the world economy has rested squarely on the shoulders of the transatlantic economy for the past 60 years. It is the largest, most powerful, and most productive economy in the world. And while the first decade and a half of globalization was largely driven and shaped by the United States and Europe, the world of tomorrow will be different. It will be less U.S.-centric and more crowded as new players, like China, Russia, India, and Brazil, from the developing nations reshape the global landscape.

Principles in the pipeline: Managing transatlantic values and interests in Central Asia
October 2008
After 9/11 the Central Asian states hosted coalition military bases and became important security partners for operations in Afghanistan. The rising price of oil and gas, coupled with a renewed western concern about its energy security, made the development and export of Central Asian production a much more pressing commercial and strategic priority for Brussels and Washington than it was in the 1990s. A region that was effectively ignored for over a decade has now become a vital area of transatlantic interest.

Putin's Great Empire
Jörg Himmelreich
October 9, 2008
Unfortunately, the Russian Georgia war confirmed that, beyond the constitution and even as prime minister, Putin is still the political leader in Russia and will be so for some time. Today's revisionistic Russia in contrast to the the static Soviet Union pursuits to newly revise its frontiers in the European Post Sovitic space. This is driven by an increasing Russian Neonationalism. Europe, in particular, is required to readjust its Russia policy to formulate a robust economic response.

GMF News: BTD anniversary, Fata becomes GMF Transatlantic Fellow, Rice speech
October 8, 2008
The lastest GMF information on past events, publications, policy papers along with recent podcasts and blogs.

New Plumbing, New Purposes - Rebuilding the Atlantic Alliance
Ronald D. Asmus
10/5/2008
The establishment of an alliance between the democracies of North America and Europe was one of the most important developments of the second half of the 20th century. Since the end of the Cold War, a central question has been whether this Alliance can continue to exist in any strategically meaningful sense.

As Turkey and Armenia inch toward reconciliation both sides talk the talk, but can they walk the walk?
Amberin Zaman
10/2/2008
When Turkey’s President Abdullah Gül took the plunge on September 6 and became the first ever Turkish leader to set foot in Armenia, few were immune to the significance of the moment. Even Turkey’s determinedly frosty diplomats began to thaw as they observed their president sitting next to his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan at the World Cup pre-qualifier football match pitting Turkey against Armenia.

Promoting Innovation to Solve Global Challenges: Opportunities for R&D in Agriculture, Climate Change, and Health
10/2/2008
Technological innovations arguably have an important role to play in addressing global challenges such as poverty, climate change, and the current food crisis. A variety of public policies exist that aim to increase incentives for innovation. Such policies can be broadly classified into two categories: “push” programs and “pull” programs. This paper discusses various aspects of alternative reward mechanisms that can promote R&D but restrict access to less than “traditional” Intellectual Property Rights systems.

Unconventional Measures
Michael Werz
October 1, 2008
If only the impressions counted that were produced during the Democratic convention in Denver, Barack Obama would have won the lections already. But Optimism alone does not secure victory. The return to old formula to which John McCain’s campaigns intends to score is also blocked. Never before the American minorities have been such an important part of the Presidential election. (Written in German)

The Battle of Giants
Soli Ozel
9/30/2008
Unlike the rest of the world, where the word “turmoil” would immediately bring to mind the financial crisis that is terminating an era of financial sector and neoliberal ideological domination in economic affairs, in Turkey, “turmoil” these days means the serially erupting corruption cases and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s personal declaration of war against media tycoon Aydin Dogan and his multi-business empire.

The U.S. Climate Policy Debate: How Climate Politics are Moving Forward on Capitol Hill and in the White House
Cathleen Kelly
9/23/2008
The Bush administration’s waning days in office herald a likely new approach in U.S. climate policy. Both major candidates in the upcoming presidential election—Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain—have publically embraced approaches to the issue which dramatically differ from the resistance to greenhouse gas regulation that has been espoused by President Bush over the last eight years. Accordingly, while no major climate legislation will likely emerge from Congress before next year at the earliest, the climate debate in the United States is changing. This paper provides an overview of the current status of the U.S. climate change policy debate.

Rue de la Loi: The Global Ambition of the European Project
Ronald D. Asmus
9/20/2008
The creation of the European Union — or what is often known as the European project — is a remarkable and ongoing experiment. It is the example par excellence of norm-building at home and, increasingly, the projection of those norms abroad. At its heart, European integration was and remains a Wilsonian project designed to ban the possibility of conflict through the application of the rule of law and norm-building on a transnational scale. The enforcement of such norms is the core of the European Union’s power. With its aim originally limited to banning conflict in Europe – and above all in the relationship between France and Germany – the EU today has since graduated to a much broader vision of both unifying the European continent as a whole and seeking to be a model and inspiration for a global order based on the rule of law and international norms.

An Election for the 21st Century
Michael Werz
September 18, 2008
An analysis of the U.S. Election, written in Italian for Italianieuropei, the Foundation of Political Culture in Rome, Italy.

Finding Out Truth about Georgian War
Ronald D. Asmus
September 17, 2008
Last week Senator Hillary Clinton called for a congressional commission to investigate the origins of the Georgian war. It is the latest skirmish in an intellectual battle over how a little war in farway Georgia started and what it mean for US policy for years. There are clashing narratives of what happened and what it means.

Will Turkey Opt Out?
9/15/2008
Many of the developments that shake the world happen around Turkey, most notably Iraq, Iran, and Georgia. Both the Turkish state and nation feel the effects of political and military developments in the regions surrounding the country and the importance of the transatlantic alliance will be further highlighted through Turkey. America and the European Union would be well advised to treat Turkey as a valued member of the alliance and communicate to the Turkish public their intentions and policies in a more direct and constructive fashion.

Turkey and Transatlantic Trends: How Distinctive?
Ian Lesser
9/15/2008
The Transatlantic Trends Key Findings Report summarizes the Turkish story in 2008. Recent conversations about the results in Ankara and Istanbul suggest some intriguing observations and open questions. The key divide in the Turkish debate is between those who remain attached to the active and “balanced” AKP foreign policy and those who wish to set more deliberate priorities, looking east or west.

Hosting Ahmedinejad
9/15/2008
Last month, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad paid a working visit to Turkey. The fact that the Iranian President was hosted by the Turkish President Abdullah Gül is a sign of Ankara’s willingness to become a more active player in the region. In the past few months, Turkish diplomacy scored a few visible successes in the Middle East. Ankara played an instrumental role in bringing about an end to the factional strife in Lebanon. The policy on Syria also produced tangible results.

Europeans and Americans: Why Europe prefers Obama to McCain
Francois Lafond
September 10, 2008
2007-08 has been a time of changes and mutation. Sen. Barack Obama's trip to Europe gave us an appetizer of a potential new era of cooperation between U.S. and European countries. One cycle will end, but we still do not know who will be in charge of writing the new one. Data from the last seven years of Transatlantic Trends can help us understand where we are and perhaps where we are going.

Climate Change and Geopolitics
Michael Werz
September 9, 2008
Climate change requires not only many debates and a fair amount of international diplomacy, but also increased military investment in the naval realm. Europe's naval forces will be an important part of a scenario in which foreign and domestic policy, humanitarian aid, and military force will be hard to distinguish from each other. Dealing with the impact of climate change and environmental migration in the Mediterranean, Europe will have to prove its capability to take on regional and global responsibilities. This piece is written in German.

Development as a Strategy: A U.S.-European Business Dialogue
Jonathan White
September 3, 2008
Based on a symposium convened in Chicago on May 15-16, 2008 and organized by GMF, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the Initiative for Global Development, and Business Action for Africa, this policy brief seeks to inform the wider business and development communities about the challenges and opportunities of pursuing long-term development objectives in business strategies. It aims to contribute to greater knowledge in this field through a robust transatlantic dialogue.

Russia warms to the West no more
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff
August 26, 2008
German policy vis a vis Russia needs to be rethought. There is no longer a basis for Germany's "Strategic Partnership" with Russia. The occupation of parts of Georgia is a game changer. In 1996, Chancellor Helmut Kohl offered the Russians a deal: Nato would allow the Central and Eastern European countries to join while Russia would be offered to gradually integrate into Western and global institutions.

After Georgia: Turkey's Looming Foreign Policy Dilemmas
Ian Lesser
August 26, 2008
By all indications, the crisis in Georgia is unlikely to end anytime soon. Even if Russian forces withdraw to negotiated positions, there is every prospect for a sustained Russian political and security presence in the country. Under these conditions, Ankara will once again face Russian power directly on its borders. In the near-term, Turkey will face difficult policy choices in reconciling the country's Russian and Western interests. Even more difficult dilemmas are on the horizon as a more competitive relationship with Russia looms, and NATO is compelled to rethink its own strategy and posture. How should Turkey's foeign policy be shaped?

Crisis in the South Caucasus: Turkey's Big Moment
August 25, 2008
As the only NATO member to border the Caucasus. Turkey control the Bosporus and Dardanelles, through which Russia and other Black Sea countries conduct most of their trade. The conflict between Georgia and Russia offers Turkey a unique opportunity to bolster its regional clout, to check Russian and Iranian influence, and to help secure the flow of Western-bound oil and natural gas from former Soviet Central Asia and Azerbaijan. Will Turkey’s leaders rise to the occasion?

NATO's Hour
Ronald D. Asmus
August 18, 2008
Russia's invasion of Georgia is a game changer. This war is part of a Russian strategy of roll-back and regime change on its borders. The more evidence that comes in, the clearer it is becoming that this is a conflict Moscow planned, prepared for and provoked -- a trap Tbilisi unfortunately walked into.

A balance of power askew
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff
August 18, 2008
It matters less than it used to what NATO promises new member states or candidate countries. Russia is no longer easily deterred. It's never been a secret that Russia objects to NATO enlargement, especially when it comes to countries bordering its own territory. Post-soviet Russia was initially poor and weak. Russia has since become rich, authoritarian, and has discovered new weapons in gas and oil. At the same time, America is overstretched. Russia is now in Georgia because no one could prevent it. Vladimir Putin understood how the balance of power had shifted, and he dealt accordingly, rendering the balance of power askew. This article is written in German.

Naive Miscalculations
Jörg Himmelreich
August 15, 2008
The Russian military overreaction to Georgian occupation of Tskhinvali will change the German and European relationship with Russia. The full article is available for download in German.

Europa muss aufwachen
Jörg Himmelreich
August 13, 2008
Senior Transatlantic Fellow Joerg Himmelreich discusses the ongoing conflict between Georgia and Russia over breakaway provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This article was written in German.

How the West Botched Georgia
Ronald D. Asmus
August 12, 2008
The guns around Tbilisi have now fallen silent. Efforts are underway to finalize a truce between Russia and Georgia to end Moscow's bloody invasion. It is time for the West to look in the mirror and ask: What went wrong? How did this disaster happen? Make no mistake. While this is first and foremost a disaster for the people and government of Georgia, it is also a disaster for the West--and for the U.S. in particular.

A Hot Proxy War: Moscow's Power Politics
Jörg Himmelreich
August 11, 2008
The rapid escalation of the conflict in South Ossetia shows just how much the crisis suits all parties involved. Georgia wants to integrate itself into the West, and Russia wants to prevent just that. The welfare of the South Ossetians plays no role whatsoever.

Black Sea Watershed
Ronald D. Asmus
August 11, 2008
In weeks and years past, each of us has argued on this page that Moscow was pursuing a policy of regime change toward Georgia and its pro-Western, democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili. We predicted that, absent strong and unified Western diplomatic involvement, we were headed toward a war. Now, tragically, an escalation of violence in South Ossetia has culminated in a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia. The West, and especially the United States, could have prevented this war.

Turkey After the Verdict: Back to Normal?
Ian Lesser
July 2008
The decision by Turkey’s constitutional court to warn and sanction, but not close the Justice and Development Party (AKP), offers an opportunity to Turks and Turkey’s international partners. After almost a year of distraction and disarray, Ankara may now be able to focus on the most pressing problems facing the country. Europe and the United States may now be able to treat Turkey as a “normal” country again. Much will depend on whether the court’s decision ushers in a period of moderation or renewed polarization, and whether the AKP government uses its renewed freedom of action to think strategically about external policy.

After The Constitutional Court Ruling: Whither Tayyip Erdogan and the AKP?
July 31, 2008
As the dust begins to settle in the aftermath of the constitutional court’s surprise decision not to ban the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the most pressing question in the Turkish capital, Ankara, is what impact it will have on the country’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This analysis is written by Amberin Zaman.

The Court Blinks
July 31, 2008
Turkey’s Constitutional Court decision not to ban the AK Party, in spite of ten members being convinced that they were indeed guilty of some political wrongdoing, means that Turkey’s political problems and its struggles for power will now have to be settled in the political realm, by the ballot box and not by extra-political means. In its own peculiar way, Turkey is clearing its own path toward becoming a better democracy and the thorny issue of Turkish secularism will need to be settled through political bargains and processes rather than judicial fiat.

Politics beats economics, again
Jack Thurston
July 30, 2008
Whoever's to blame for the collapse of the Doha round, one thing's for sure – we'll all have to live with the consequences.

GMF releases working papers on cultural agents of change in Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova
July 2008
GMF and the European Cultural Foundation have launched a joint project to better understand the role of culture and cultural actors in promoting change, that is, the democratization, Europeanization and modernization of Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine. The results of this reflection process are laid out in this series of papers.

Obama's European trip pays off
Michael Werz
July 25, 2008
GMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz examines the odd choice by Obama to campaign for America's presidency from abroad and the success with which it was received by the people of Berlin. This interview is in German.

La Europa balcánica
Ivan Vejvoda
July 24, 2008
Ivan Vejvoda, Executive Director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, discusses the recent capture of former Bosnian-Serb leader Radovan Karadzic. The article is written in Spanish.

EU-US scholar: Obama may not be the easy partner Europe hopes for
Francois Lafond
July 23, 2008
Amid their 'Obamania', Europeans tend to overlook that on certain issues like trade, a President Obama pressured by a Democrat-led Congress could be a more difficult partner in pushing for a common agenda, Francois Lafond of the German Marshall Fund told EurActiv in an interview.

Groß ist die Hoffnung
Stephen Szabo
July 23, 2008
Dr. Stephen Szabo, Executive Director of the Transatlantic Academy at the German Marshall Fund, discusses Senator Barack Obama's visit to Berlin, Germany and greater Europe. The article is written in German.

If Not Now, Then When?
Joe Guinan
July 2008
As ministers gather around the WTO negotiating table the week of July 21 in Geneva, there are troubling questions about whether the deal that is at hand is really worth doing and whether it is even possible to conclude an agreement at present, given the political constraints-especially those associated with a U.S. presidential election year.

Merkel's Ukraine Visit Signals Crucial Shift
Jörg Himmelreich
July 21, 2008
Angela Merkel's arrival in Kyiv marks the first visit to Ukraine by a German chancellor since the 2005 Orange Revolution brought a reformed, pro-Europe government to power. Her predecessor never found his way to Kyiv because he was worried by the grievances from Moscow that such a trip would have provoked. Merkel, though, gives less weight to Russia's concerns, even though they are expressed much more bluntly these days.

We're quick to damn the US but slow to see our own faults
Constanze Stelzenmüller
July 20, 2008
President Obama is finally coming to Europe! All right, the Americans haven't elected him ... yet. But that's a mere technicality as far as we're concerned. We made up our minds long ago: our President is Barack Obama.

Democracy and a Piece of Clothing
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff
July 18, 2008
France has rejected a citizenship application from a burqa-wearing Moroccan woman on the grounds that she has "insufficiently assimilated" to French culture. Should cultural assimilation be a requirement for citizenship?

A War The West Must Stop
Ronald D. Asmus
July 15, 2008
There is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain.

The U.S. Presidential Election and the Prospects for Transatlantic Trade and Investment
Joseph Quinlan
July 2008
The transatlantic partnership over the past eight years has been under constant strain, creating an atmosphere of disappointment and distrust on both sides of the Atlantic. This brief examines the transatlantic economic partnership on trade and investment and the prospects of whether or not that relationship will continue to flourish under a new U.S. administration in 2009 or whether there will be a new tide of protectionism.

Senior TAF Ian Lesser testifies before Congress on Europe-Israel relations
Ian Lesser
July 9, 2008
Senior Transatlantic Fellow Ian Lesser testified today before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs in a joint hearing of the Subcommittee on Europe and the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. His testimony is posted in the attached document.

"America, this is our Moment" - Barack Obama writes history
Michael Werz
July 2008
Nothing has been decided as of yet with regard to the new occupant of the White House. Nevertheless major changes have happened in US society already. When Barack Obama declared himself Democratic candidate for the Presidency on June 3rd in front of 17,000 enthusiastic supporters in St. Paul, Minnesota, American history seemed to take place in fast motion. The nomination of the first black candidate for the highest office evoked three centuries of American history and at the same time documented the astonishing path this nation has taken.

America must correct course: a conversation with Helmut Schmidt
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff
July 1, 2008
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, the senior director for policy programs at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, recently met with former German Finance Minister and Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in his Hamburg office on behalf of The American Interest to discuss the United States and the world economy.

Walking a Tightrope: World Trade in Manufacturing and the Benefits of Binding
June 2008
Negotiators in Geneva are still struggling to conclude the Doha Round of multilateral trade talks at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Doubts have been fueled by the modesty of recent estimates of the gains on the table in the negotiations on Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA). This policy brief argues that a completed Doha Round has more to offer to the U.S. and European private sector than cuts to already low applied industrial tariffs. The real gold mine in the Doha negotiations is the increased certainty that would flow from large cuts to bound tariff rates.

Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin - Summer 2008
June 23, 2008
The Balkan Trust for Democracy periodically releases a seasonal Bulletin in which it shares grantee success stories, the latest BTD news, and letters from Executive Director Ivan Vejvoda.

What We Can Learn From Sweden
Bruce Stokes
June 21, 2008
In the early 1990s, Sweden experienced the worst financial crisis suffered by any industrial country since the Depression. The Swedish banking collapse wiped out fortunes, cost taxpayers a staggering amount of money, and may have permanently reduced the country’s standard of living. Thus, as Washington watches Wall Street’s slow-motion meltdown, Stockholm may have much to teach the next president about weathering banking tsunamis.

Internationalizing the Georgia-Abkhazia Conflict Resolution Process: Why a Greater European Role is Needed
June 2008
The last several years have seen a deterioration in the situation, a growing tension level in the conflict zone and an increased danger of renewed conflict in Abkhazia. At stake is not only Abkhazia or Georgia, but the rules of the game in European security.

U.S. needs alliance with Europe
June 18, 2008
As President Bush made his farewell tour of Europe, one could almost be forgiven for thinking the continent had become an afterthought for the United States. Yet such a view would ignore the fact that a strong trans-Atlantic alliance is needed now more than ever, as America shares many more values, challenges and goals with the democracies of Europe than with any other nations.

Narrowing the Transatlantic Climate Divide: A Roadmap to Progress
June 2008
Most climate change opinion leaders on both sides of the Atlantic have modest expectations for the July Summit in Hokkaido, Japan—the location of both the G-8 leaders’ meeting and the Major Economies Meeting (MEM), an initiative launched by President Bush last year that involves the world’s 16 major economic powers and emitters, plus the EU. Transatlantic allies seem to be an ocean apart over how quickly Europe, the United States, and other major economies should reduce emissions over the next decade, but downplaying Hokkaido could be a serious mistake.

Merkel in the Russia trap
Jörg Himmelreich
June 5, 2008
The cordial meeting between Merkel and the new Russian President Medvedev on his first trip to the West might indicate a change of style of Russia's foreign policy, but not its essence. The slalom course of Merkel and Steinmeier bears the risk for Germany to become isolated in Europe in its Russia and "Ostpolitik," Jörg Himmelreich warns. This article is written in German.

A Middle East Final Act?
June 2008
April 2009 will mark the 10th anniversary of the entry of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into NATO. The journey of these and other former Warsaw Pact countries to the EU and NATO is one of the most inspiring transformations in modern history. Lessons from these remarkable achievements are relevant to the U.S. foreign policy debate in three critical areas.

GMF News: U.S. Presidential election website, journalism awards, new GMF Climate & Energy Program
June 4, 2008
The lastest GMF information on past events, publications, policy papers along with recent podcasts and blogs.

The Dalai Obama
Constanze Stelzenmüller
June 3, 2008
Barack Obama drums up admiration in Germany as only the Dalai Lama can do, but the end of this euphoria is foreseeable. As America chooses, the world looks on. The next man at the helm of America will determine global politics like none other. In this sense, won't he in fact become the world's President? He's pretty much there, at least that's so far the case in Germany.

Get involved over Georgia or invite a war
Ronald D. Asmus
June 3, 2008
The west could be sleepwalking into a war on the European continent. Georgia, which burst into view with a moving display of democratic ambition during the Rose Revolution of 2003, is teetering on the brink of war with Russia over the separatist Georgian enclave of Abkhazia. The outcome of this crisis will help determine the rules of the post-cold-war security system. But western diplomats are notsending strong enough signals to either side.
Written with Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations

Turkey, closer to the U.S. than Europe
Michael Werz
June 2008
If you compare the geographical distances from Ankara, Los Angeles is 11,000 Kilometers removed, whereas Berlin is a mere one-fifth of that distance. This proximity Germany and Turkey should offer great opportunities to each other's societies. But if one compares the political debates vis-à-vis Turkey in Germany and the United States, the relationship of distance and proximity reverses itself. (Written in German)

A counterrevolutionary
Michael Werz
May 2008
As the Democratic nomination of a presidential candidate captivates the United States, the Republican race is already settled. But the headstrong outsider John McCain is still being identified with the unpopular President George Bush. And many of his political positions have not yet been clarified and he has a number of foes in his own party. Will he be able to unite the disparate parts of the party? This article is written in German.

Turkey's Travails: Outlook and Strategic Consequences
Ian Lesser
May 2008
As Turkey’s Constitutional Court prepares to act on the closure case pending against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turks across the ideological spectrum are watching and waiting. Predictions and preferences abound; active responses are limited. Caution and inertia appear to be the order of the day, even for those most exposed to the consequences of political and economic turmoil.

Transatlantic Regulatory Cooperation in Services: Can it Help the Developing World?
May 2008
The European Union and the United States have dynamic services markets highly integrated through deep trade and investment ties. Differences in regulatory approaches and philosophies occasionally cause transatlantic disagreement regarding how each should respond to specific challenges or market needs. This is particularly true in services, which tend to be more highly regulated than manufacturing industries.

Rediscovering the Mediterranean: A Transatlantic Perspective on Security and Strategy
Ian Lesser
May 2008
The American presence in the Mediterranean is longstanding, but despite 200 years of engagement in the region, the American perspective on the Mediterranean remains distinctive and diffused.

As Farm Bill Nears Vote, Bush Presses for Fewer Subsidies
Dan Morgan
May 4, 2008
President Bush's decision in 2002 to sign a farm bill loaded with billions of dollars of new agricultural subsidies triggered considerable criticism from GOP conservatives true to the party's anti-spending philosophy.

GMF News: Khalilzad, Transatlantic Forum on Migration and Integration, Kolbe Testifies
May 1, 2008
The lastest GMF information on past events, publications, policy papers along with recent podcasts and blogs.

Emptying the Breadbasket
Dan Morgan
April 29, 2008
At Stephen Fleishman's busy Bethesda shop, the era of the 95-cent bagel is coming to an end. Breaking the dollar barrier "scares me," said the Bronx-born owner of Bethesda Bagels. Fleishman and his customers are hardly alone. Across America, turmoil in the world wheat markets has sent prices of bread, pasta, noodles, pizza, pastry and bagels skittering upward, bringing protests from consumers.

The schism between Washington and Berlin
Ronald D. Asmus
April 25, 2008
What happened at the NATO Summit in Bucharest is gradually becoming clear. This summit was the most dramatic since Madrid 11 years ago, and, if it becomes dramatic, it could either be a success or not matter whatsoever. A dramatic debate can lead to something new or lead to an uncertain stillstand. In Bucharest it was probably the latter. (This article is written in German)

China's African Aid
April 24, 2008
The rise of China as a very visible actor in Africa is one of the most striking features of the first decade of the new millennium. Trade between the two regions is projected to reach $100 billion before 2010, ten times the 2000 figure. At the same time, the rise of China has been greeted with fear and apprehension by many in the United States, Europe, and Africa who see this strong interest more as a threat than an opportunity.

Getting America’s Message Out to a Skeptical World
Michael Polt
April 2008
As the world continues to be intrigued by the U.S. electoral process, getting the American message out to its foreign audiences in a credible manner will be one of the most important agenda items and the toughest challenges for the new U.S. administration in January 2009. With a pioneering foreign and domestic policy and a strong diplomatic service, the United States is uniquely positioned to take on this public diplomacy challenge.

Jim Kolbe testifies before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Jim Kolbe
April 23, 2008
Senior Transatlantic Fellow Jim Kolbe, a former Member of the U.S. House of Representatives, testified April 23 before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs about foreign assistance reform in the next administration.

The End of the End of History
Robert Kagan
April 22, 2008
GMF Transatlantic Fellow Robert Kagan gives five reasons as to why the twenty-first century will look like the nineteenth.

Brown, black, white: Americans vote and discover a new continent
Michael Werz
April 11, 2008
Usually nominations and elections decide about the future of a society. However, much to the surprise of many American, in the United States an intensive conversation about the status quo has begun. This has to do with the monumental changes in race relations that have become highlighted in the Democratic nomination process; transformations that before might not been so visible. The yearlong battle has opened out into a cultural self-reflection of national proportions and resulted in an unbelievable political mobilization. (In German)

Rethinking NATO Partnerships for the 21st Century
Ronald D. Asmus
April 2008
Security threats today are globalised and non-traditional. It’s time for NATO’s partnerships to follow suit.

Bucharest Conference Papers
April 2008
Edited by Robin Shepherd of Chatham House and released in advance of the Bucharest Conference and ahead of the official NATO Summit, the Bucharest Conference Papers are written by independent authors on the topics of NATO's mission in Afghanistan; NATO enlargement; global cyber defense and NATO; and NATO's relationship with Russia.

Supping at the WTO's Last Chance Saloon
Joe Guinan
March 27, 2008
The global credit squeeze has made the world's economics ministers understandably jittery. But the crisis unfolding over world trade is far more serious. With the Doha Round of talks at the WTO at a standstill, now the unthinkable could happen. The global trading system may be abandoned.

Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin - Spring 2008
March 25, 2008
The Balkan Trust for Democracy periodically releases a seasonal Bulletin in which it shares grantee success stories, the latest BTD news, and letters from Executive Director Ivan Vejvoda.

Time to Rethink the WTO System:The United States, the European Union, and World Trade
Joe Guinan
March 2008
This paper argues that there is a need for reflection on the purpose of the WTO system. Putting the rapid integration of the world economy in perspective, this paper dwells on American and European leadership, or lack thereof, and on the major threats to the WTO system over agricultural protectionism and the proliferation of trade agreements. The authors conclude with alternative broad approaches to the further liberalization of trade.

The Crisis of the Post-Cold War European Order: What to Do About Russia’s Newfound Taste for Confrontation With the West
March 2008
The author of this paper argues that Russia’s newfound taste for confrontation with the West is not an emotional overreaction or theatrical grandstanding – it is a strategic choice. The Kremlin’s new foreign policy is not circumstantial in nature. It is the expression of a new foreign policy consensus within the Russian elite and the Russian society at large. The author analyzes what the West can do to allow the coexistence of a post-modern European Union and a post-imperial Russia.

Guardians of the Global System: What the Transatlantic Economic Partnership Should Give the World — and Why it Might Not Deliver
Richard Salt
March 2008
This paper is an effort to illustrate a number of factors shaping the global political economy, in the hope of generating a long-term foundation for transatlantic cooperation. The first part describes the scale of the challenge by reminding us why globalization generates particular challenges that require international solutions, and why it is so difficult to secure the necessary international cooperation. The second part argues that transatlantic cooperation is likely to be essential, and that the European Union and the United States have a particular responsibility conferred on them by their size and power; noting, however, that significant political obstacles seem, at present, likely to block progress.

Transatlantic Power Failures: America and Europe, Seven Years After 9/11: Hard Power Humbled, Soft Power Exposed, and a Looser, More Pragmatic Relationship
Constanze Stelzenmüller
March 2008
This briefing paper examines the massive failures of that occurred after 9/11 on both sides of the Atlantic. It analyzes the notion of power, and the ideas and policies that stemmed from the attack by asking the following questions: What failed, and why? What remains valid, and worth preserving? And what is the way forward for the transatlantic relationship?

China's changing policies towards rogue states
Andrew Small
March 18, 2008
Chinese policy towards rogue states has undergone a quiet revolution in the last few years. While China is far from being a genuinely like-minded partner to the United States in dealing with these countries, its cooperation is becoming an increasingly central factor in diplomatic efforts to find solutions to the crises in North Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Burma. The testimony sets out the nature of the shift in Chinese policy, the driving factors, the constraints on its scope, and the implications for U.S. policy.

Balancing National Security and Commerce
March 2008
Following several years of tension between Europe and the United States, policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have rediscovered pragmatism. Apparently irreconcilable differences of values are giving way to new forms of practical cooperation. However, the new transatlantic relationship differs from the old one in some very important ways. New issues that involve access to various forms of security-sensitive economic information are becoming increasingly prominent. These issues, however, do not fit neatly into the traditional boxes of the transatlantic relationship. On the one hand, they touch directly on important and sensitive matters of national security. On the other hand, they involve a much wider variety of actors than traditional security issues ever did. The European Union and the United States have sought to resolve their differences over these issues in new ways, opting for decentralized and often ad-hoc forms of cooperation that build upon existing relationships in the security realm.

Will America's Image Recover in Europe: Understanding Public Opinion Since 9/11
John K. Glenn
March 2008
Managing expectations for change may be the foremost task for policymakers in the coming administration. European media coverage of the U.S. election has at times reflected a fascination with various candidates, leading one observer to declare, “Germany’s got a crush on Obama.” This paper grounds these hopes and fears by analyzing the public opinion data of Transatlantic Trends, an annual survey of foreign policy attitudes in the United States and Europe conducted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States and its partners since 2002.

Of Ayatollahs and Jacobins: Re-balancing after the Rise of Revolutionary Powers—a Historical Lesson for Transatlantic Policy Toward Iran
March 2008
In this paper that the Iranian revolution of 1979 can be compared to the French revolution of 1789 in its destabilizing effects—and in the need it created for a new balance of power. Each event set loose powerful shock waves that undermined the stability of neighboring states, and indeed, challenged their very legitimacy. Each inaugurated an era in which mobilization of the masses, through emotional, ideological, or religious appeals, had a transforming effect on their regions. Each introduced a revolutionary challenge to the prevailing balance in regional security. Each launched other revolutionary movements that, though they appeared to be competitors, were really aftershocks—the rise of Prussia was arguably such an event in Europe and the rise of Al-Qaeda was certainly such an event in the Islamic Middle East. And each prompted what might be called “wars of containment”—attempts by the neighboring status quo powers to contain the revolutions’ disruptive impact outside their home borders. These comparisons are obviously not precise—the growth of the Prussian state and the emergence of Al-Qaeda terrorism are radically different events. But each phenomenon was linked to the disruption of the status quo by a revolutionary power.

Kosovo: The Balkans' Moment of Truth
Ivan Vejvoda
March 4, 2008
Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, testified before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding Kosovo and the Balkans.

The Copenhagen Consensus: Reading Adam Smith in Denmark
March 1, 2008
Denmark has forged a social and economic model that couples the best of the free market with the best of the welfare state, transcending tradeoffs between dynamism and security, efficiency and equality. Other countries may not be able to simply copy the Danish model of social democracy, but it nonetheless offers important lessons for governments confronting the dilemmas of globalization.

Senate Testimony: The Foreign Aid Lessons for Domestic Economic Assistance Act of 2007
February 27, 2008
Paul Applegarth, former GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow, testified before a Senate committee on how foreign economic aid and development lessons can impact domestic economic aid.

A new catastrophe for the boat people
February 21, 2008
Le Dung was 7 when his family bought passage on a rickety boat and fled the communist government of Vietnam for parts unknown. That was 30 years ago, when the plight of the Vietnamese boat people filled newspapers as one of the most dramatic stories coming out of the Cold War in Asia, and the United Nations convened a special conference to find them homes. Today these former boat people endure further misfortune after their homes were destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.

Atlantic Faces Interview
February 18, 2008

The Democrats in '08: Clinton and Obama struggle between experience and change
Michael Werz
February 2008
Since World War II, the quarrels within the democratic party during the primaries have attracted attention because the party was known for destroying itself while trying to find a suitable candidate for the most important position in the world. Why, in the seemingly endless campaigns from 2007 and 2008, does everything appear to be different this time around? GMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz explains the reasons in this article for Kommune (full text in German).

2007 Annual Report
February 2008
Highlights GMF convening events, networking programs, research, and grantmaking initiatives in 2007. Also, includes a letter from GMF President Craig Kennedy along with financial and partner information. Downloadable as a large PDF file.

The Impacts of Biofuels on Greenhouse Gases: How Land Use Change Alters the Equation
Tim Searchinger
February 7, 2008
Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels.

GMF News: Bulgarian FM, climate change, regulation policy
January 31, 2008
The lastest GMF information on past events, publications, policy papers along with recent podcasts and blogs.

China's New Dictatorship Diplomacy
Andrew Small
January 28, 2008
China is often accused of supporting a string of despots, nuclear proliferators, and genocidal regimes, shielding them from international pressure and thus reversing progress on human rights and humanitarian principles. A new Chinese foreign policy practice is emerging. This article was co-written with Stefanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt.

German voters peek through the looking glass
Constanze Stelzenmüller
January 25, 2008
The incumbent campaigning for re-election in this weekend's German election is one of his party's heavyweights, an ambitious and confident bruiser with a talent for scorching populist rhetoric. His challenger is a woman, a diffident speaker in a party with few women in top leadership positions; her peers would mostly have preferred another man as their candidate. It seemed an easy win for the incumbent. Now, polls show the race is too close to call.

The Baltic Model
Ronald D. Asmus
January 16, 2008
The West again faces major questions about how to reach out to young democracies striving to join our institutions -- in the Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The challenge is to tie these countries to the West and its values at a time when enlargement fatigue is setting in and Moscow's opposition is growing.

Iran Policy After the “NIE” — Modest Findings, Revolutionary Effects
Ian Lesser
January 8, 2008
Findings from the recently released National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s program are not revolutionary — but the ensuing debate could be transforming for U.S. and transatlantic strategy toward Iran. The new estimate suggests that Tehran may well opt for a prolonged “near-nuclear” posture to secure greater regional weight and influence without triggering a sharp diplomatic or military response. The option of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure now looks more remote. But longer term transatlantic strategy will need to emphasize containment and extended deterrence — alongside possible strategic dialogue with Iran.

Europe's Philosophy of Failure
Stefan Theil
January 4, 2008
What a country teaches its young people reflects its bedrock national beliefs. Schools hand down a society's historical narrative to the next generation. There has been a great deal of debate over the ways in which this historical ideology is passed on - Japanese textbooks that downplay the Nanjing Massacre, Palestinian textbooks that feature maps without Israel, and new Russian guidelines that require teachers to portray Stalinism more favorably. Yet there has been almost no analysis of how countries teach economics, a subject equally crucial in shaping foreign and domestic policies.

ACPs and EPAs: where’s the beef?
Joe Guinan, Susan Sechler
January 3, 2008
Now that the Doha round appears to be stirring back to life, some of the world's poorest countries should be looking to multilateralism to protect their interests with a renewed sense of urgency. The perils of bilateralism and unequal negotiations have been brought into sharp focus by the year-end expiration of the WTO waiver for the Cotonou regime of trade preferences, by which the European Union offered special access to its markets for the African, Carribean, and Pacific (ACP) group of former European colonies.

Is our aid making us safer?
Jim Kolbe
January 2, 2008
While images of Africa are effective in raising awareness of the issue, little attention has been paid to the problems in our current efforts to alleviate poverty. It is increasingly apparent that our aid - and trade - policies are not really supporting economic growth in impoverished countries. Nor are they enhancing our own security.

Modernity, Resentment, and Anti-Americanism
Michael Werz
January 2008
Althought Anti-Americanism is often treated as though it were a uniform reaction toward some undefined but somehow concrete experience, it should be analysed instead against the background of dynamic societies undergoing profound social, economic, and political and cultural transformations. This essay highlights some of the attempts to generally understand this phenomenon and then moves onto Germany specifically.