In the wake of Turkey's recent Constitutional Court decision over the country's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), GMF launched On Turkey.  An ongoing series of analysis briefs about Turkey's current political situation and its future. GMF provides regular analysis briefs by leading Turkish, European, and American writers and intellectuals, with a focus on dispatches from on-the-ground Turkish observers.  Writers include:

• Soli Ozel, a professor at Istanbul Bilgi University and a columnist for the national daily Sabah
• Amberin Zaman, Turkey correspondent for The Economist
• Ian Lesser, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow and a longtime Turkey follower at the State Department, RAND, and the Woodrow Wilson Center

In addition, periodic contributions from GMF scholars such GMF Berlin Office Director Constanze Stelzenmüller, among others, will put developments in Turkey into a transatlantic and international context.

Policy and Opinion Briefs 

Two Roads Diverge in South Caucasus
December 5, 2008
Two roads diverge in the South Caucasus and the newly elected U.S. administration can take either one. On the one hand it can support steps for cooperation and can mark the very first example of the new world order by permanently ignoring the signals of domestic politics; or on the other hand it can prioritize domestic political pressures, thus contributing to fragility and instability in the region.

Don't legislate history
Written by Soli Ozel
December 5, 2008
In the Turkish-Armenian relationship, history is being used as a political weapon to settle scores. Turkey has shown great progress on the path toward reconciliation, but there are two more steps the Turkish government could take to warm the relationship once and for all.

Turkey and the Global Economic Crisis
Written by Ian Lesser
December 1, 2008
It is now apparent that the global economy is headed for a deep and prolonged crisis, with potentially dramatic consequences for emerging as well as developed markets. Turkey is in no sense decoupled from the effects of this global turmoil. Over the next few years, economic stress could have a dramatic effect on Turkey's internal and external scene, including regional security and the prospects for Turkish relations with the European Union and the United States.

Committed to Change, or Changing Commitments? Turkish-American Relations Under a New U.S. President
Written by Soli Ozel
November 17, 2008
Geopolitical realities seem to have once more elevated Turkey's importance in American foreign policy decisions. In the past, Turkey's strategic importance and America's reliance on it had an inverse relationship to the deepening of Turkish democracy.

Today, the stability of Turkey necessitates that the country maintain its democratic orientation and that all its political actors commit themselves to this goal. One of the major tests of the Obama administration in its relations with Turkey may very well be whether it will treat Turkish democracy as a fundamental good or an expendable one.

Turkey and the United States under Barack Obama: Yes They Can
Written by Amberin Zaman
November 13, 2008
As the world celebrates the recent election of Barack Obama, politicians in Ankara ponder what this will mean for their country. Obama's foreign policy vision suggests that Turkish fears are overblown, and that there exists a window of opportunity for reinforcing a strategic partnership with the United States in ways that can positively impact the region, if leaders on both sides show some imagination and avoid pitfalls that line the way.

As Turkey and Armenia inch toward reconciliation both sides talk the talk, but can they walk the walk?
Written by Amberin Zaman
October 2, 2008
When Turkey's President Abdullah Gül took the plunge on September 6 and became the first ever Turkish leader to set foot in Armenia, few were immune to the significance of the moment. Even Turkey's determinedly frosty diplomats began to thaw as they observed their president sitting next to his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan at the World Cup pre-qualifier football match pitting Turkey against Armenia.

The groundbreaking trip has raised expectations that after decades of mutual hostility Turkey and Armenia will bury the hatchet, establish formal ties, and re-open their borders. Hopes of a breakthrough have been heightened by the conflict in Georgia, which has refocused regional minds on the need for peace. Yet, amid all the euphoria there are worrying signs that this latest and most serious stab at reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia may come to naught.

Will Turkey Opt Out?
Written by Soli Ozel
September 15, 2008
Many of the developments that shake the world happen around Turkey, most notably Iraq, Iran, and Georgia. Both the Turkish state and nation feel the effects of political and military developments in the regions surrounding the country and the importance of the transatlantic alliance will be further highlighted through Turkey. America and the European Union would be well advised to treat Turkey as a valued member of the alliance and communicate to the Turkish public their intentions and policies in a more direct and constructive fashion.

Turkey and Transatlantic Trends: How Distinctive?
Written by Ian Lesser  
September 15, 2008
The Transatlantic Trends Key Findings Report summarizes the Turkish story in 2008. Recent conversations about the results in Ankara and Istanbul suggest some intriguing observations and open questions. The key divide in the Turkish debate is between those who remain attached to the active and "balanced" AKP foreign policy and those who wish to set more deliberate priorities, looking east or west. Many in Europe are weighing the Turkish case in light of past enlargement experience, with a sense that process and momentum are likely to outweigh public reservations. As almost half of Turkish respondents favored a unilateral approach to international issues, it is worth asking whether Turkish perspectives are not closer to those most often ascribed to Washington.

Hosting Ahmedinejad
Written by Sinan Ülgen
September 15, 2008
Last month, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad paid a working visit to Turkey. The fact that the Iranian President was hosted by the Turkish President Abdullah Gül is a sign of Ankara's willingness to become a more active player in the region. In the past few months, Turkish diplomacy scored a few visible successes in the Middle East. Ankara played an instrumental role in bringing about an end to the factional strife in Lebanon. The policy on Syria also produced tangible results.

After Georgia: Turkey's Looming Foreign Policy Dilemmas
Written by Ian Lesser
August 26, 2008
By all indications, the crisis in Georgia is unlikely to end anytime soon. Even if Russian forces withdraw to negotiated positions, there is every prospect for a sustained Russian political and security presence in the country. Under these conditions, Ankara will once again face Russian power directly on its borders. In the near-term, Turkey will face difficult policy choices in reconciling the country's Russian and Western interests. Even more difficult dilemmas are on the horizon as a more competitive relationship with Russia looms, and NATO is compelled to rethink its own strategy and posture. How should Turkey's foeign policy be shaped?

Crisis in the South Caucasus: Turkey's Big Moment
Written by Amerin Zaman
August 25, 2008
As the only NATO member to border the Caucasus. Turkey control the Bosporus and Dardanelles, through which Russia and other Black Sea countries conduct most of their trade. The conflict between Georgia and Russia offers Turkey a unique opportunity to bolster its regional clout, to check Russian and Iranian influence, and to help secure the flow of Western-bound oil and natural gas from former Soviet Central Asia and Azerbaijan. Will Turkey's leaders rise to the occasion?

Media inquiries in the U.S. can be made to Kristina Field in Washington at kfield@gmfus.org or +1 202 683 2621. In Europe, contact Elizabeth Boswell Rega in Brussels at eboswellrega@gmfus.org or +32 473 280 950.