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International Security Printer-Friendly Version
Conflict in the South Caucasus

Russia-Georgia conflictOn August 8, the conflict between Russia and Georgia erupted into war over the break-away enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The German Marshall Fund has been tracking the developments in the wider Black Sea region for the past few years. Experts from our Washington, DC, headquarters and European offices have contributed detailed commentary on the current discussion surrounding the Russia-Georgia conflict and Georgia's previous democratic and economic development.

The discussion is available through the following outlets:

Policy and Opinion Briefs

Internationalizing the Georgia-Abkhazia Conflict Resolution Process: Why a Greater European Role is Needed
June 2008
The last several years have seen a deterioration in the situation, a growing tension level in the conflict zone and an increased danger of renewed conflict in Abkhazia. At stake is not only Abkhazia or Georgia, but the rules of the game in European security.

GMF paper series on the Wider Black Sea region
October 2007
Highlighting the Black Sea region as critical for the United States and Europe, GMF launches a new grantmaking initative and a series of policy briefs focusing on the region's challenges and opportunities. The paper series features commentary from leading scholars - Ronald D. Asmus, Fyodor Lukyanov, Jörg Himmelreich, Fariz Ismailzade, Ivan Krastev, Jonathan Kulick, F. Stephen Larrabee, Ilgar Mammadov, and Temuri Yakobashvili.

Events

Bush, Karzai, Harper bring NATO debates to the Bucharest Conference
April 1, 2008
Bucharest, Romania
The Bucharest Conference featured addresses by U.S. President George W. Bush, Romanian President Traian Basescu, Romanian Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, and Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher, as well as other panel discussions on pressing NATO issues such as enlargement, missile defense, and Russia. Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, and NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer discussed alliance operations in Afghanistan.

Basescu serves up some suprises in NATO Summit Preview
January 31, 2008
Brussels, Belgium
On January 31, GMF Brussels hosted a talk by Romanian President Traian Basescu, entitled "Gearing up for the NATO Summit," that was later opened up for a question and answer session from the audience. Dr. Ronald D. Asmus, the executive director of GMF's Brussels Office, moderated the event held in the packed Polak Room of the Residence Palace.

New Georgian PM reacts to recent unrest
December 5, 2007
Brussels
On December 5, GMF hosted Prime Minister of Georgia Lado Gurgenidze for a public speech and discussion entitled "Georgia after the state of emergency: The way ahead," in Brussels, Belgium.

USAID Administrator Fore praises public-private partnerships
December 3, 2007
Washington, DC
Speaking December 3 at the U.S. launch of the Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation, USAID Administrator Henrietta Fore said the advent of public-private partnerships has changed the face of development.

Lessons for a new European Neighborhood Policy for the Black Sea Region
March 12, 2007
Berlin
From March 12-13, GMF co-hosted a workshop focusing on the Black Sea Region entitled, "Lessons for a new European Neighborhood Policy for the Black Sea Region" together with the Weidenfeld Institute for Strategic Dialogue. The event provided a platform for EU and German government officials and experts to discuss how to foster regional cooperation and closer approximation with the EU for the Black Sea Region without the offer of full membership to the Union.

Georgian president promotes 'Discos for Peace'
February 26, 2007
Brussels, Belgium
At a February 26 event in Brussels, hosted by GMF's Brussels office, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili touted "Discos for Peace" as a way to resolve tensions in the frozen conflict area of South Ossetia. Entitled "Europe is on Georgia's Mind," the event also featured Estonian President Toomas Ilves and Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, both contributing to the debate regarding Central and Eastern European democratization efforts.

Riga Conference concludes with NATO enlargement panel
November 29, 2006
Riga, Latvia
"The Riga Conference: Transforming NATO in a New Global Era," conducted by completes a full agenda of discussions, speeches, and events around the NATO Summit. Estonian President Ilves says there is no NATO "enlargement fatigue"

Basescu: Romania is committed to strengthing partnership with U.S.
July 27, 2006
Washington, DC
On July 27, GMF's Washington office organized a dinner for Romanian President Traian Basescu to discuss U.S.-Romanian relations, NATO enlargement in the Black Sea region, U.S. visa policies, and Romania's committment to the "War on Terror."

Azeri Foreign Minister discusses Euro-Atlantic integration
July 6, 2006
Berlin
On July 6, GMF's Berlin office hosted a discussion on the challenges and prospects of Azerbaijani Euro-Atlantic Integration with Elmar Mammadyarov, Azerbaijan's Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Conference looks at Black Sea regional democracy, security
June 29, 2006
Ankara
On June 29 and 30, the German Marshall Fund co-hosted a conference entitled "Democratization and Security in the Black Sea" with the ARI Movement in Ankara, Turkey. The conference was the eighth International Security Conference by ARI Movement and brought together a range of participants, including diplomats, journalists, academics, and fellow think-tank representatives.

Romanian official says Black Sea important to United States, Europe
March 7, 2006
Washington, DC
GMF hosted Sergiu Medar, national security advisor to the Romanian president, Mar. 7 for a discussion on challenges and opportunities in the Black Sea region. Mr. Medar said that with some 20 billion tons of untapped oil resources, the Black Sea should be an area of interest for the transatlantic community. He also underscored the region's potential to serve as a barricade against "asymmetrical threats" like terrorism, organized crime, and human and drug trafficking.

Georgian president says nation aspires to NATO, EU
February 2, 2006
Berlin
On February 2, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili told journalists from the leading German media that he was very content with the outcome of the "Rose Revolution" and reiterated Georgia's hopes for eventual NATO and EU membership.

Georgian foreign minister emphasizes stability
January 23, 2006
Berlin
On Jan. 23, GMF's Berlin office hosted Gela Bezhuashvili, Georgia's minister of foreign affairs, for a dinner with 18 Ambassadors or deputy chiefs of mission for European Union and NATO countries. Bezuashvili emphasized the importance of NATO and EU integration for the stability and security of Georgia.

Black Sea strategy debated
January 19, 2006
Berlin
On January 19, the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Romanian Embassy to Germany organized a panel discussion, "Towards a European Strategy for the Wider Black Sea Region."

Georgian Prime Minister Assesses "Rose" Reforms
November 28, 2005
Brussels
Two years after Georgia's "Rose Revolution," the country is prospering in its democratization and economic liberalization, according to Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli.

Books

Bucharest Conference Papers
April 2008
Edited by Robin Shepherd of Chatham House and released in advance of the Bucharest Conference and ahead of the official NATO Summit, the Bucharest Conference Papers are written by independent authors on the topics of NATO's mission in Afghanistan; NATO enlargement; global cyber defense and NATO; and NATO's relationship with Russia.

Next Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black Sea
Ronald D. Asmus
November 20, 2006
In advance of the Riga conference "Transforming NATO in a New Global Era," the German Marshall Fund launches the book Next Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black Sea.

A New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region
Ronald D. Asmus, Joerg Forbrig
July 2004

The Black Sea and the Frontiers of Freedom
Ronald D. Asmus
June 2004
A series of historically unprecedented events have brought the attention of the West to the wider Black Sea region - that region including the littoral states of the Black Sea, Moldova, and the Southern Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

Developing a New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region: Istanbul Paper #2
Ronald D. Asmus
May 27, 2004
A series of historically unprecedented events have brought the attention of the West to the wider Black Sea region-that area including the littoral states of the Black Sea, Moldova, and the Southern Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. An area that has heretofore been neglected by the Euro-Atlantic community is now starting to move from the periphery to the center of Western attention.

Articles and Op-ed Pieces

NATO's Hour
Ronald D. Asmus
August 18, 2008
Russia's invasion of Georgia is a game changer. This war is part of a Russian strategy of roll-back and regime change on its borders. The more evidence that comes in, the clearer it is becoming that this is a conflict Moscow planned, prepared for and provoked -- a trap Tbilisi unfortunately walked into.

Europa muss aufwachen
Jörg Himmelreich
August 13, 2008
GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Joerg Himmelreich discusses the ongoing conflict between Georgia and Russia over breakaway provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This article was written in German. 

How the West Botched Georgia
Ronald D. Asmus
August 12, 2008
The guns around Tbilisi have now fallen silent. Efforts are underway to finalize a truce between Russia and Georgia to end Moscow's bloody invasion. It is time for the West to look in the mirror and ask: What went wrong? How did this disaster happen? Make no mistake. While this is first and foremost a disaster for the people and government of Georgia, it is also a disaster for the West--and for the U.S. in particular.

A Hot Proxy War: Moscow's Power Politics
Jörg Himmelreich
August 11, 2008
The rapid escalation of the conflict in South Ossetia shows just how much the crisis suits all parties involved. Georgia wants to integrate itself into the West, and Russia wants to prevent just that. The welfare of the South Ossetians plays no role whatsoever.

Black Sea Watershed
Ronald D. Asmus
August 11, 2008
In weeks and years past, each of us has argued on this page that Moscow was pursuing a policy of regime change toward Georgia and its pro-Western, democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili. We predicted that, absent strong and unified Western diplomatic involvement, we were headed toward a war. Now, tragically, an escalation of violence in South Ossetia has culminated in a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia. The West, and especially the United States, could have prevented this war.

A War the West Must Stop
Ronald D. Asmus 
July 15, 2008
There is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain. 

Get involved over Georgia or invite a war
Ronald D. Asmus
June 3, 2008
The West could be sleepwalking into a war on the European continent. Georgia, which burst into view with a moving display of democratic ambition during the Rose Revolution of 2003, is teetering on the brink of war with Russia over the separatist Georgian enclave of Abkhazia. The outcome of this crisis will help determine the rules of the post-cold-war security system. But western diplomats are notsending strong enough signals to either side.

Rethinking NATO Partnerships for the 21st Century
Ronald D. Asmus
April 2008
Security threats today are globalised and non-traditional. It's time for NATO's partnerships to follow suit.

Global trends, regional consequences: Wider strategic influences on the
Black Sea

Ian Lesser
November 27, 2007
The wider Black Sea area is rapidly becoming a focal point of interest for a number of extra-regional actors that can also be considered, in view of their active involvement, to be stakeholders. As Ian Lesser, the author of this new Xenophon Paper suggests, the Black Sea is strategically significant because it is an important part of the European security environment.

Georgia outshines Ukraine at recent NATO summit in Riga
Taras Kuzio
December 20, 2006
Following NATO's Riga summit, Georgia looks set to speed up its drive to join NATO, while Ukraine's position continues to be ambivalent. The US and NATO's support for Georgian membership is unequivocal, while they are having difficulty in formulating a clear strategy to Ukraine since Yankovych returned to government.

Looking for a Stability Pact for the Southern Caucusus
Jörg Himmelreich
February 9, 2006
Germany is heavily engaged in Georgia. At the same time, Germany does not have a comprehensive foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus.

The Black Sea and the Frontiers of Freedom
Ronald D. Asmus
June 2004
A series of historically unprecedented events have brought the attention of the West to the wider Black Sea region - that region including the littoral states of the Black Sea, Moldova, and the Southern Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

Blog Posts 

August 14, 2008

The five-day war in Russian media

August 13, 2008
What the German media is saying about the Russia-Georgia conflict 

August 12, 2008

Russia casts a pall over China's day in the sun

August 11, 2008

War in the Caucasus was both predictable and avoidable

August 11, 2008

Georgia-Russia conflict as seen elsewhere in the Black Sea region

August 10, 2008

Georgia-Russia conflict in the French press

July 15, 2008

Keeping Georgia's "Rose" in bloom

September 7, 2007
Add energy to America's relations with Turkey

April 16, 2008
One week before the vote, where do candidates stand on foreign policy?